Monday, December 23, 2013

Peak Oil Is Here And It Will Break Economies (Former BP Geologist)

"We need new production equal to a new Saudi Arabia every 3 to 4 years to maintain and grow supply... New discoveries have not matched consumption since 1986. We are drawing down on our reserves, even though reserves are apparently climbing every year. Reserves are growing due to better technology in old fields, raising the amount we can recover – but production is still falling at 4.1% p.a. [per annum]."


Berkowitz Talks About His Large Positions (From September)

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Whitney Tilson - Why There Is More Downside In InterOil

After InterOil (IOC) announced its long-awaited asset monetization deal with energy supermajor Total (TOT) on Thursday night, the stock plunged 37% on Friday (before popping 10% Monday) because the deal failed to meet investors' overheated expectations. So is it time to declare victory on what was my largest short position and move on? No. Though I took some profits Monday, I maintain a short position because I think there's more downside to come for InterOil.

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Monday, December 9, 2013

What Is Jim Chanos Shorting ? Take A Look

Chanos: “We’re very bearish on coal for a variety of reasons. I think it’s the flipside of the shale gas boom in the U.S. But you’re even beginning to see some movement shockingly in China to cut back on burning coal because, let’s face it, the pollution issue there…I think that it’s still cheaper in the European markets and Asian markets to burn coal than natural gas but that’s because natural gas is $10-12 and $14-16 in Asia. There’s more and more coal being mined similar to this boom, so the supply keeps coming. In the U.S., there’s additional issues and that is, the EPA is on the case here pretty diligently — on top of the real substitution effect that natural gas has. We’re pretty much short all the leveraged coal companies with one exception, which is one of our hedges. But you can assume pretty much that we are short all of the leveraged coal companies. If you look at the numbers in the coal companies, these are companies, really, some of them in financial distress or about to be.”