Introducing the CVI - Punch Card Portfolio Newsletter

I write a weekly investment newsletter. This newsletter involves the development of a focused portfolio of undervalued securities. The subscription price is $12 per month (cancel any time). Every investment idea I recommend will be one I purchase for my own portfolio. If you have questions prior to subscribing shoot me an e-mail (Swizzledxxx@gmail.com)

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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Former Head Says TARP Was Abysmal Failure

Hey, the world didn't end and we all thought it was going to..

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/tarp-was-abysmal-failure-former-head/article4448989/

Zach Galifianakis Reports The Weather

http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/video/7562485-zach-galifianakis-reports-the-weather-with-cbs-3s-katie-fehlinger/

Thoughts From Jim Grant and Bill Gross

Bill Gross of PIMCO – August Investment Outlook 


Jim Grant – The Office of Unintended Consquences

Majority of Energy Execs Believe Energy Independence Within 15 Years

Forbes Insights Energy Executive Survey

David Einhorn / Greenlight Re Investor Day Video

Saudi Intelligence Chief Killed By Syrian hit men?

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/329747

Jim Grant Investment Recommendations

Jim likes Google, Blackstone and Walnut Trees

Tiger Management Helps Next Generation of Funds

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/tiger-management-helps-next-generation-funds/

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Pzena Investment Management Q2 Commentary


"Rather than succumb to the fear that is driving undervaluation, a true value manager gets excited when value opportunities abound. Today, many of our developed markets portfolios are among the cheapest in our firm's history. However, one characteristic of value investing - especially when investing before the catalyst for share price improvement is apparent - is that it requires time for improvement to be recognized and rewarded in share prices.
We believe we continue to be in the early stages of a value cycle, a cycle which is testing the pain threshold of even the most hardened, long-term investors. We remain true to our beliefs. Our conviction is supported by past experience and the rewards that eventually follow such periods of pain. Timing is impossible to predict, of course. All we can do is thoughtfully position our clients' portfolios in today's deepest value opportunities, having carefully assessed the range of potential outcomes for each company we own, and sized the positions accordingly. Underpaying for quality franchises is a long-term investor's true ally. The sign on our head trader's desk says it all: "Patience equals Profits." "

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Canada A Focus of a Great New Scramble for Oil

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/canada-again-a-focus-of-a-new-great-scramble-for-oil/article4439270/

Dr. Doom, The Boys From the Goodhaven Fund and John Couger Muhlenkamp

Marc Faber – Are Treasuries the Biggest Bubble We Have Ever Seen?

Goodhaven Semi-Annual Report (Managed by Ex-Fairholme Managers Pitkowsky/Trauner)

Muhlenkamp Q2 Memorandum

Is Peak Oil Dead?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/07/24/1094111/is-peak-oil-dead/

The Russians Trying to Throw Wet Blanket On Shale Gas Boom

Trying to discourage Europe and Asia from developing similar assets?

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/NaturalGas/8545823

Barnett Shale Production Not Falling Despite Rig Count Drop

We keep getting better at drilling these wells

http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/Article.aspx?cdid=A-15354555-12844

Greenlight - Q2 2012 Letter To Investors

Greenlight Q2 Letter to Investors

Monday, July 23, 2012

Jim Grant on Capital Account - Bubbles in Safe Haven Countries

Prem Watsa Doubles Fairfax Stake in Research in Motion

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2012/7/23/Fairfax-boosts-stake-in-RIM.aspx

US Shale Boom - A Case of Temporary Indigestion

US Shale Boom- A Case of (Temporary) Indigestion US Version June 2012

Will Tight Oil Change the World?

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/07/21/will-tight-oil-change-the-world/?__lsa=cea0ce15

Blackrock's Bob Doll Visits Wealthtrack

Will Shale Revolution Lead to US Energy Independence

CNOOC Buying Nexen For $15.1 Billion

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-cnooc-says-buy-canadas-nexen-15-1-102035613--finance.html

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Bill Ackman Speaks To CNBC on His HK Dollar Trade

From last fall, nice long interview.

Geithner Speaks at Delivering Alpha

Is Kudlow really the best we have to interview the Treasury Secretary?

Muddy Waters, Chanos and Cooperman

Muddy Waters Research Strikes Again – Issues Sell Opinion on New Oriental Education & Technology Group  

Jim Chanos Delivers His Short Thesis on HPQ

Leon Cooperman – Video from the Delivering Alpha Conference

Leon Cooperman Stock Ideas From Delivering Alpha Conference


AIA Group Limited
Capital One Financial
Express Scripts
Gannet Co
Halliburton
Kidner Morgan
MetLife
Qualcomm
Watson Pharmaceuticals
Western Union
"I would say I have so many more I could give you," he says adding that he finds himself limited because of the macro environment.



Friday, July 13, 2012

Longleaf Partners June 2012 Shareholder Letter


A busy quarter for Longleaf as they finally stepped in and assumed an active role at Chesapeake Energy.
If you look at the one, three, five and ten year results for Longleaf the performance has actually not been great.  My inclination is to think that this is due to them having portfolios that are currently quite undervalued and that a bounce back in performance is likely.
Which means that the current Longleaf holdings are likely a good place to look for bargains.
Here is the letter in its entirety:

Drilling Costs Coming Down in Canada

Music to my ears.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/energy-resources/CEOs+concur+that+economic+gloom+hurting/6925715/story.html

Buffett On JP Morgan Loss

Warren up early to talk to Betty today.  He loves the ladies......

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Art Cashin Predicting Where the Market Will Be 5 Minutes From Now

Good old Art.  What is the time horizon for him on an investment?  Half hour?  Day after tomorrow?

Perhaps I'm jealous, as holding onto stocks is a wee bit painful over the past couple of months.....

Passport Capital's John Burbank at Sun Valley

What is he doing there ?  What a life.....

Canadian Energy Stocks

Sit down folks I've cracked the code on energy stocks traded in Canada.

Ready for it.  Apparently as of early March 2012 it works like this:

When oil goes down.  Canadian energy stocks go down.

When oil stays flat.  Canadian energy stocks go down.

When oil goes up.  Canadian energy stocks go down a little less.

Even the larger ones.

I keep adding to my favorites.  The scary part is oil is $85.  Not exactly a low price or a problem for oil producers.

Chart forPenn West Petroleum Ltd. (PWE)

When Will the WTI Discount to Brent Go Away

Soon I hope.  My portfolio is stuffed with Canadian oil producers and I don't like selling this product at a discount from the global price.

Interesting article points out the three coming solutions to get the oil out of Cushing:

Part 1 of the Seaway pipeline - 150k barrels from cushing
Part 2 of the Seaway - 400k barrels from cushing (early 2013)
Keystone Gulf Project - 700k barrels per day late 2013
Part 3 of the Seaway - 850k barrels from cushing (mid 2014)

http://www.rbnenergy.com/a-bridge-too-far-when-will-the-wti-discount-to-brent-end

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Why AIG is Attractive

Oakmark's Nygren on AIG


American International Group (AIG-$32)
AIG is a large insurance company operating in both property and casualty (Chartis) and life (SunAmerica). It is a poster child of the financial crisis, having required over $180 billion in government aid, and the government still owns over half of its outstanding shares.  While the rescue measures still dampen its current valuation, we believe AIG has made remarkable progress under the leadership of CEO Robert Benmosche.  The government loans have been completely repaid, and the stock currently trades above the government’s breakeven point of $29.  Two years ago, we found it almost impossible to estimate the value of AIG’s equity. The analysis involved guessing at proceeds from sales of businesses and valuing large, opaque, levered loan portfolios. Today the analysis is the same as it would be for any insurer: What is its future earnings outlook? How good are its reserves? How will its capital be invested? Chartis went through a difficult period of writing unprofitable business just to grow revenues. That has stopped, and we believe that for the past several years Chartis has focused on only writing profitable business even if growth suffers. Reserves have been boosted to a level that we think is consistent with other high-quality insurers. Capital is being invested primarily in share repurchase -- with AIG selling at just over half of book, this is nicely accretive to the company’s per-share book value. We believe that AIG should earn over $3 per share this year and is on track to earn in excess of $5 per share within a few years. We believe that AIG is priced as if its future looks like its past. We expect the current discount to other insurers will diminish as the memory of the financial crisis fades.

Bill Gross Discusses No QE3 From Fed Today

I honestly don't care, but some might enjoy listening to Billy G:



Manhattan Institute - Unleashing North American Energy Colossus

Manhattan Project on Hydrocarbons and the Future

OPEC Oil Demand up 800k/day 2013, 900k/day 2012

Some perspective on the "glut" of oil that we have

Total Bakken production after 5 years of pretty heavy drilling is 500k per day.  Oil demand globally growing more than that every year

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE86A0F220120711?irpc=932

Monday, July 9, 2012

Hollywood's Highest Paid Actors for 2011

Good lord, I like me some Adam Sandler, but that Jack and Jill movie was the worst thing I've ever seen.  He should be paying us for what he created

Wealthtrack July 6, 2012

Oil Exporters - Main Drivers of Global Imbalance

Makes you wonder why encouraging domestic oil production isn't a no-brainer:

http://www.economist.com/node/21553424

Dr. Doom Predicts 2013 Will Be Worse Than 2008 Crash

Nouriel, if this doesn't come to pass in 2013 will you then say that it is going to happen in 2014?  Or will you be wrong?

Personally, I'm just not smart enough to even try predicting such things.

Monday, July 2, 2012

Leon Cooperman Speaks to Bloomberg

Mississippi Lime Moves Into Mainstream Oil Production


Operators, including majors, are beginning to move into the Mississippi Lime play in Kansas, while an emerging horizontal Woodford play in Oklahoma is adding to the attraction.
The Mississippian limestone or Mississippi Lime play started around 2009 with the first horizontal wells in Oklahoma with SandRidge Energy leading the way. Three years later, companies like Devon, High Mount, and Calyx are opening up a horizontal Woodford play in the same area.