Hey, the world didn't end and we all thought it was going to..
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/tarp-was-abysmal-failure-former-head/article4448989/
Introducing the CVI - Punch Card Portfolio Newsletter
Subscribe to CVI - Punch Card Portfolio Newsletter
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
Monday, July 30, 2012
Sunday, July 29, 2012
Pzena Investment Management Q2 Commentary
"Rather than succumb to the fear that is driving undervaluation, a true value manager gets excited when value opportunities abound. Today, many of our developed markets portfolios are among the cheapest in our firm's history. However, one characteristic of value investing - especially when investing before the catalyst for share price improvement is apparent - is that it requires time for improvement to be recognized and rewarded in share prices.
We believe we continue to be in the early stages of a value cycle, a cycle which is testing the pain threshold of even the most hardened, long-term investors. We remain true to our beliefs. Our conviction is supported by past experience and the rewards that eventually follow such periods of pain. Timing is impossible to predict, of course. All we can do is thoughtfully position our clients' portfolios in today's deepest value opportunities, having carefully assessed the range of potential outcomes for each company we own, and sized the positions accordingly. Underpaying for quality franchises is a long-term investor's true ally. The sign on our head trader's desk says it all: "Patience equals Profits." "
Link to Entire Letter: http://www.pzena.com/investment-analysis-9
Saturday, July 28, 2012
Friday, July 27, 2012
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Treasury's Wolin On Draghi's Promise to Defend the Eurozone
What is the alternative? The world ending?
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
The Russians Trying to Throw Wet Blanket On Shale Gas Boom
Trying to discourage Europe and Asia from developing similar assets?
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/NaturalGas/8545823
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/NaturalGas/8545823
Barnett Shale Production Not Falling Despite Rig Count Drop
We keep getting better at drilling these wells
http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/Article.aspx?cdid=A-15354555-12844
http://www.snl.com/InteractiveX/Article.aspx?cdid=A-15354555-12844
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
We Are Headed To $8 Natural Gas
That is what this guys says......
http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardfinger/2012/07/22/were-headed-to-8-00-natural-gas/
http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardfinger/2012/07/22/were-headed-to-8-00-natural-gas/
Monday, July 23, 2012
Friday, July 20, 2012
Something Coming on Petrobakken?
Likely just wishful thinking, big volume the last couple of days and a real pop at the end today...
Comparing Petrobakken's Valuation to Kodiak Oil and Gas
I used Petrobakken because it is somewhat similar, but you could substitute a dozen other Canadian unconventional oil producers and it would read the same:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/735731-if-you-like-kodiak-oil-gas-you-ll-love-petrobakken?v=1342795429&source=tracking_notify
http://seekingalpha.com/article/735731-if-you-like-kodiak-oil-gas-you-ll-love-petrobakken?v=1342795429&source=tracking_notify
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Legacy Oil and Gas - Cheap By Every Metric
These unconventional oil players in Canada are pretty much all very undervalued. Here is one that I don't own, but would happily:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/731091-legacy-oil-and-gas-cheap-by-every-metric?v=1342697382&source=tracking_notify
http://seekingalpha.com/article/731091-legacy-oil-and-gas-cheap-by-every-metric?v=1342697382&source=tracking_notify
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Geithner Speaks at Delivering Alpha
Is Kudlow really the best we have to interview the Treasury Secretary?
Leon Cooperman Stock Ideas From Delivering Alpha Conference
Cooperman's stock picks he says are selling at a discount...
AIA Group Limited
Capital One Financial
Express Scripts
Gannet Co
Halliburton
Kidner Morgan
MetLife
Qualcomm
Watson Pharmaceuticals
Western Union
"I would say I have so many more I could give you," he says adding that he finds himself limited because of the macro environment.
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Who Are The Stinking Rich?
A bit surprised at what gets a person into the top 5%
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/02/how-the-stinking-rich-ate-the-economy/253187/
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/02/how-the-stinking-rich-ate-the-economy/253187/
Friday, July 13, 2012
Longleaf Partners June 2012 Shareholder Letter
A busy quarter for Longleaf as they finally stepped in and
assumed an active role at Chesapeake Energy.
If you look at the one, three, five and ten year results for
Longleaf the performance has actually not been great. My inclination is to think that this is due
to them having portfolios that are currently quite undervalued and that a
bounce back in performance is likely.
Which means that the current Longleaf holdings are likely a
good place to look for bargains.
Here is the letter in its entirety:
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Art Cashin Predicting Where the Market Will Be 5 Minutes From Now
Good old Art. What is the time horizon for him on an investment? Half hour? Day after tomorrow?
Perhaps I'm jealous, as holding onto stocks is a wee bit painful over the past couple of months.....
Perhaps I'm jealous, as holding onto stocks is a wee bit painful over the past couple of months.....
Canadian Energy Stocks
Sit down folks I've cracked the code on energy stocks traded in Canada.
Ready for it. Apparently as of early March 2012 it works like this:
When oil goes down. Canadian energy stocks go down.
When oil stays flat. Canadian energy stocks go down.
When oil goes up. Canadian energy stocks go down a little less.
Even the larger ones.
I keep adding to my favorites. The scary part is oil is $85. Not exactly a low price or a problem for oil producers.
Ready for it. Apparently as of early March 2012 it works like this:
When oil goes down. Canadian energy stocks go down.
When oil stays flat. Canadian energy stocks go down.
When oil goes up. Canadian energy stocks go down a little less.
Even the larger ones.
I keep adding to my favorites. The scary part is oil is $85. Not exactly a low price or a problem for oil producers.
When Will the WTI Discount to Brent Go Away
Soon I hope. My portfolio is stuffed with Canadian oil producers and I don't like selling this product at a discount from the global price.
Interesting article points out the three coming solutions to get the oil out of Cushing:
Part 1 of the Seaway pipeline - 150k barrels from cushing
Part 2 of the Seaway - 400k barrels from cushing (early 2013)
Keystone Gulf Project - 700k barrels per day late 2013
Part 3 of the Seaway - 850k barrels from cushing (mid 2014)
http://www.rbnenergy.com/a-bridge-too-far-when-will-the-wti-discount-to-brent-end
Interesting article points out the three coming solutions to get the oil out of Cushing:
Part 1 of the Seaway pipeline - 150k barrels from cushing
Part 2 of the Seaway - 400k barrels from cushing (early 2013)
Keystone Gulf Project - 700k barrels per day late 2013
Part 3 of the Seaway - 850k barrels from cushing (mid 2014)
http://www.rbnenergy.com/a-bridge-too-far-when-will-the-wti-discount-to-brent-end
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
Oakmark's Nygren on AIG
American International Group (AIG-$32)
AIG is a large insurance company operating in both property and casualty (Chartis) and life (SunAmerica). It is a poster child of the financial crisis, having required over $180 billion in government aid, and the government still owns over half of its outstanding shares. While the rescue measures still dampen its current valuation, we believe AIG has made remarkable progress under the leadership of CEO Robert Benmosche. The government loans have been completely repaid, and the stock currently trades above the government’s breakeven point of $29. Two years ago, we found it almost impossible to estimate the value of AIG’s equity. The analysis involved guessing at proceeds from sales of businesses and valuing large, opaque, levered loan portfolios. Today the analysis is the same as it would be for any insurer: What is its future earnings outlook? How good are its reserves? How will its capital be invested? Chartis went through a difficult period of writing unprofitable business just to grow revenues. That has stopped, and we believe that for the past several years Chartis has focused on only writing profitable business even if growth suffers. Reserves have been boosted to a level that we think is consistent with other high-quality insurers. Capital is being invested primarily in share repurchase -- with AIG selling at just over half of book, this is nicely accretive to the company’s per-share book value. We believe that AIG should earn over $3 per share this year and is on track to earn in excess of $5 per share within a few years. We believe that AIG is priced as if its future looks like its past. We expect the current discount to other insurers will diminish as the memory of the financial crisis fades.
Bill Gross Discusses No QE3 From Fed Today
I honestly don't care, but some might enjoy listening to Billy G:
OPEC Oil Demand up 800k/day 2013, 900k/day 2012
Some perspective on the "glut" of oil that we have
Total Bakken production after 5 years of pretty heavy drilling is 500k per day. Oil demand globally growing more than that every year
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE86A0F220120711?irpc=932
Total Bakken production after 5 years of pretty heavy drilling is 500k per day. Oil demand globally growing more than that every year
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE86A0F220120711?irpc=932
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
Monday, July 9, 2012
Hollywood's Highest Paid Actors for 2011
Good lord, I like me some Adam Sandler, but that Jack and Jill movie was the worst thing I've ever seen. He should be paying us for what he created
Oil Exporters - Main Drivers of Global Imbalance
Makes you wonder why encouraging domestic oil production isn't a no-brainer:
http://www.economist.com/node/21553424
http://www.economist.com/node/21553424
Dr. Doom Predicts 2013 Will Be Worse Than 2008 Crash
Nouriel, if this doesn't come to pass in 2013 will you then say that it is going to happen in 2014? Or will you be wrong?
Personally, I'm just not smart enough to even try predicting such things.
Personally, I'm just not smart enough to even try predicting such things.
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Saturday, July 7, 2012
Friday, July 6, 2012
Bloomberg Interviews John Burbank of Passport Capital
I had a buddy who used to work for Passport. Last I heard he had quit and was living in his parents basement.
That likely isn't of much interest to anyone but me.
Here is John B:
That likely isn't of much interest to anyone but me.
Here is John B:
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Hofmeister On Oil Prices
Sees oil in the high $70s in the near term. But when the economy gets stronger, the price is going right back up again.
Monday, July 2, 2012
Mississippi Lime Moves Into Mainstream Oil Production
Operators, including majors, are beginning to move into the Mississippi Lime play in Kansas, while an emerging horizontal Woodford play in Oklahoma is adding to the attraction.
The Mississippian limestone or Mississippi Lime play started around 2009 with the first horizontal wells in Oklahoma with SandRidge Energy leading the way. Three years later, companies like Devon, High Mount, and Calyx are opening up a horizontal Woodford play in the same area.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)