I wrote the linked article below for Seeking Alpha. I've been heavily invested in tight oil / shale oil producers for the past several years, so I believe production is going to increase in North America.
But what I think the media has missed about the IEA report on American energy independence is how precarious the global supply outlook is for the next twenty years.
The IEA is assuming $215 per barrel for oil in 2035 and for that it is counting on Iraq to do this:
Iraq makes the largest contribution by far to global oil supply growth. Iraq's ambition to expand output after decades of conflict and instability is not limited by the size of its resources or by the costs of producing them, but will require co-ordinated progress all along the energy supply chain, clarity on how Iraq plans to derive long-term value from its hydrocarbon wealth and successful consolidation of a domestic consensus on oil policy. In our projections, oil output in Iraq exceeds 6 mb/d in 2020 and rises to more than 8 mb/d in 2035.
Link my full article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1006331-if-iraq-can-triple-production-oil-will-only-be-215-in-2035
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