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Monday, May 21, 2012

Japan Is Never Going to Default, The Kyle Bass Trade Won't Work

http://www.businessinsider.com/japan-is-never-going-to-default-2012-5

2 comments:

  1. Well, I think it's always a good idea to listen to opposing viewpoints, but I think this guy is completely wrong.

    For one, he criticizes Bass for using Debt-to-GDP as a measure. Actually, as you know, Bass uses government revenue to Debt as his measure.

    Second, and I see this view popping up a lot, is this notion that the only thing that can cause a sovereign default is the not controlling your own currency (e.g., E.U.). And that seems highly crazy to me. What caused all those defaults in the past before the E.U.?

    I mean, I agree you can inflate as the solution, but that's a distinction without a difference.

    Also, he treats political upheaval as this exogenous event that causes currency collapses. Whereas, as you inflate, external parties no long want to do business with you, which causes those political events.

    Anyway, that's how I currently see it. What do you think, Devon?

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  2. I think predicting such things is beyond my circle of expertise. I do enjoy reading such opinions though.

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