Introducing the CVI - Punch Card Portfolio Newsletter

I write a weekly investment newsletter. This newsletter involves the development of a focused portfolio of undervalued securities. The subscription price is $12 per month (cancel any time). Every investment idea I recommend will be one I purchase for my own portfolio. If you have questions prior to subscribing shoot me an e-mail (Swizzledxxx@gmail.com)

Please note I'm running a low-tech operation and that the newsletter is sent by me via e-mail. There will be a delay between when you pay and when you receive your first e-mail (usually a couple of hours).

Subscribe to CVI - Punch Card Portfolio Newsletter

Friday, September 30, 2011

Joel Greenblatt Interview With Steve Forbes

Buffett On Bloomberg

Warren Buffett On Bloomberg Television Discussing Tax Plan

Buffett Buys $4 billion in equities in Q3

Buffett Buys $4 billion of Equities in Q3 - Commences Buyback

Calgary Herald Article on Petrobakken Selloff

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Ewart+Markets+cast+wary+PetroBakken+stock/5481424/story.html

Michael Lewis Vanity Fair Article on the mess in California

Michael Lewis Vanity Fair Article – California Is the Nightmare Scenario

George Soros Offers a Solution To Stave Off Depression

George Soros – Offers a European Solution to Stave Off a Depression

Chinese Property Bubble is Dubai in 2007 x 1,000

Jim Chanos – Chinese Property Bubble Is Dubai in 2007 Multiplied by One Thousand

Devon Energy - Loaded With Cash, Focused On Onshore Assets

http://seekingalpha.com/article/296830-devon-energy-increasingly-focused-on-horizontal-drilling-technology

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Conversation With Petrobakken CFO

I just sent out an e-mail to newsletter subscribers detailing my conversation with Petrobakken's CFO who was kind enough to make some time for me this evening.

After the elevator ride down the stock has taken this week on the BMO analyst downgrade it was the least I could do for subscribers.

This is the hard part of investing.  Staying the course.  Being able to speak directly to management helps do that.  While the stock price moves around wildly the underlying business moves forward.

Chesapeake Utica Drilling Results - Yet Share Price Drops

http://seekingalpha.com/article/296687-chesapeake-share-price-down-20-from-date-of-utica-shale-disclosure

Eric Sprott - A Bold, Gold Man

Eric Sprott – A Bold Gold Man

Alice Schroeder - Buffett Put Provides an Idea of What is Coming

Alice Schroeder – The Buffett “Put” Provides an Idea of What Is Coming

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Buying Six Stocks For Punch Card Portfolio

I went through my watchlist of stocks Friday evening.  I could barely find one that isn't attractively priced.

That is of course if you assume the world isn't ending.

I'm determined to hit this opportunity with a hammer.  So I'm adding six new positions to the Punch Card Portfolio in the newsletter being released to subscribers tomorrow.

Also included is an interview with the CEO of an existing holding.

Suck it up.  Buy what you know, when you know it is a great opportunity.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Marc Faber - Something Awful Wrong With Economy

Marc Faber – Stocks Signal Something Awfully Wrong with Global Economy

Utica Shale Worth Half a Trillion Dollars - CHK CEO

http://seekingalpha.com/article/295612-aubrey-mcclendon-pegs-value-of-utica-shale-at-a-mere-half-trillion-dollars

International Energy Outlook 2011 - Have We Got a Plan?

world marketed energy consumption grows by 53 percent from 2008 to 2035.

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/

200 Trillion Feet of Shale Gas Found in England ?

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/cuadrilla-unveils-shale-gas-discovery

Biglari Holdings - Annual Letter to Shareholders

Biglari Holdings Annual Letter to Shareholders – Following in the Footsteps of Henry Singleton

Bill Mann - Motley Fool Mutual Funds - August Commentary

Bill Mann – The Dangerous Phase

Muhlenkamp on Bloomberg

Ron Muhlenkamp on Bloomberg – Federal Reserve Actions Are Counterproductive
http://insider.thomsonreuters.com/link.html?cn=uidTWEMEA&cid=265773&shareToken=MzpkMzJjMDcxNi03YTcyLTQ5YzAtYWEyZC05ZWY4Y2MyZGFiMjU%3D&start=0&end=303

Hess CEO - Not Willing to Sugarcoat Peak Oil Problem

http://seekingalpha.com/article/295546-hess-ceo-an-oil-insider-not-willing-to-sugarcoat-our-peak-oil-problem

Thursday, September 22, 2011

WealthTrack Interview With Bruce Berkowitz

WealthTrack Interview Transcript with Bruce Berkowitz

WealthTrack Charles Maxwell Transcript

Transcript of WealthTrack Interview with Oil Guru Charles Maxwell

Don't Panic - Remember What Grantham Was Waiting to Buy In a Selloff

Don’t Panic, Focus – on Energy, Metals and Agriculture, Says Grantham

Fortuitous Time To Launch A Newsletter

I've spent the better part of the last year focusing on the Canadian unconventional oil sector.

With this group of stocks down 6% to 10% today I feel very fortunate to have just launched a newsletter.

This sector has been drubbed repeatedly over the past 6 months, today is just the icing on the cake.

I feel like I'm in the right place at the right time and now is the time to start getting greedy.  There are no shortage of candidates worthy of recommendation this Sunday. 

EOG's Mark Papa on the Next Oil Industry Homerun

My newsletter portfolio already has 3 picks specifically aimed at profiting from it....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/295153-unconventional-oil-an-enormous-opportunity-for-chesapeake-and-eog

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Interview With CEO of Punch Card Portfolio Holding

The CEO of a Punch Card Portfolio holding was generous enough to give me some time to grill him with questions this afternoon.

I'll be providing a full recap of the conversation in the Newsletter sent to subscribers on Sunday.

"Who's Who" of Value Investors Own Goldman Sachs

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/146014/a-value-investing-whos-who-have-decided-to-invest-in-a-black-box-goldman-sachs

New Buffett Manager to Get Less Pay, More Taxes By Choice

New Buffett Manager Gets Less Pay, Higher Taxes by Choice

Charles De Vaulx - Still Betting On Gold

 http://www.gurufocus.com/news/145991/charles-de-vaulx--still-betting-on-gold

Next Punch Card Portfolio Issue Sunday, September 25

My plan for my newsletter portfolio is a relatively concentrated portfolio of undervalued equities.

Mr. Market however seems to have some other ideas.  The way this week is shaping up there will be at least one new recommendation in the next newsletter, along with coverage of a meeting with analysts by one of my existing positions.

I'm sure there are even lower prices in the future, but there is no doubt value to be had today in quite a few publicly traded securities.

And if I recommend it, I'll be risking my own money on it as well.

Jim Grant - Provides an Equation for Valuing Gold

http://seekingalpha.com/article/295006-jim-grant-explains-an-equation-for-how-to-value-gold

Yield on 10 Year Treasury Lower Now Than Late 2008

http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/20/markets/thebuzz/

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Billions of barrels being turned into reserves in Western Canada

http://www.nickles.com/feature.aspx?id=8913

$3.71 Per Share in Net Assets, $0.56 Stock Price

http://seekingalpha.com/article/294863-connacher-big-upside-potential-but-little-room-for-error

US Department of Energy Shale Gas Report

http://www.shalegas.energy.gov/resources/081811_90_day_report_final.pdf

Disclosure of fracturing fluid composition: The Subcommittee shares the


prevailing view that the risk of fracturing fluid leakage into drinking water sources

through fractures made in deep shale reservoirs is remote. Nevertheless the

Subcommittee believes there is no economic or technical reason to prevent

public disclosure of all chemicals in fracturing fluids, with an exception for

genuinely proprietary information.

Mark Papa on EOG and Eagle Ford Oil Recovery

http://seekingalpha.com/article/294710-mark-papa-on-eog-s-eagle-ford-play-increasing-recoveries-equal-increasing-value

Off the Radar News On a Punch Card Portfolio Holding

My intention is to build up the stock portfolio for my subcription newsletter slowly.

So far I'm not doing a very good job of it as I've recommended four stocks in two weeks and have provided a list of 15 to 20 others that are tempting.  I'm finding current stock prices of some companies hard to resist.

This morning I e-mailed subscribers an update containing some exciting off the radar news that is material to one of my four recommendations.

If I find information that I think can provide an advantage to my subscribers I prefer to pass it along immediately.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Daniel Yergin - Shoots Down Peak Oil Theory

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904060604576572552998674340.html

And a rebuttal:

Rebuttal to Daniel Yergin


By Jeffrey J. Brown

Jeffrey J. Brown is an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area. He has just been named to the ASPO-USA board of directors and has been a frequent contributor to Energy Bulletin and The Oil Drum. His website is GraphOilogy.

He submitted a letter to the Wall Street Journal in response to Daniel Yergin's article. The letter has not yet been published by the WSJ.


To the Editor:

Contrary to Mr. Yergin’s assertion that advocates of Peak Oil have been wrong at every turn, six years of annual global production data show flat to declining crude oil and total petroleum liquids production data.

The EIA shows that global annual crude + condensate production (C+C) has been between 73 and 74 mbpd (million barrels per day) since 2005, except for 2009, and BP shows that global annual total petroleum liquids production has been between 81 and 82 mbpd since 2005, except for 2009. In both cases, this was in marked contrast to the rapid increase in production that we saw from 2002 to 2005. Some people might call this "Peak Oil,” and we appear to have hit the plateau in 2005, not some time around mid-century.

Only if we include biofuels have seen a material increase in global total liquids production.

In the US, there are some good stories about rising Mid-continent production, and US (C+C) production has rebounded from the hurricane related decline that started in 2005, but 2010 production was only very slightly above the pre-hurricane level that we saw in 2004, and monthly US production has been between 5.4 and 5.6 mbpd since the fourth quarter of 2009, versus the 1970 peak of 9.6 mbpd. Incidentally, US net oil imports of crude oil plus products have fallen since 2005, primarily as a result of a large reduction in demand, because of rising oil prices (which Mr. Yergin predicted would not happen), but EIA data show that the US is still reliant on crude oil imports for two out of every three barrels of oil that we process in US refineries.

However, the real story is Global Net Oil Exports (GNE), which have shown a measurable multimillion barrel per day decline since 2005, and which are measured in terms of total petroleum liquids, with 21 of the top 33 net oil exporters showing lower net oil exports in 2010, versus 2005. An additional metric is Available Net Exports (ANE), which we define as GNE less Chindia's (China + India’s) combined net oil imports. ANE have fallen at an average volumetric rate of about one mbpd per year from 2005 to 2010, from about 40 mbpd in 2005 to about 35 mbpd in 2010 (BP + Minor EIA data, total petroleum liquids).

At the current rate of increase in the ratio of Chindia's net imports to GNE, Chindia would consume 100% of GNE in about 20 years. Contrary to Mr. Yergin’s sunny pronouncements, what the data show is that developed countries like the US are being forced to take a declining share of a falling volume of GNE. In fact, our work suggests that the US is well on its way to “freedom” from its reliance on foreign sources of oil, just not in the way that most people hoped.

In a November, 2004 interview in Forbes, Mr. Yergin asserted that oil prices would be back to a long term price ceiling of $38 by late 2005--because of a steady increase in global crude oil production. It turned out that Mr. Yergin’s predicted price ceiling has so far been the price floor. The lowest monthly spot crude oil price that the EIA shows for post-November, 2004 is $39.

I suspect that just as Mr. Yergin was perfectly wrong about oil prices, he may be confidently calling for decades of rising production, just as we come off the current production plateau and just as an accelerating decline in Global Net Exports kicks in.

Sincerely,

Jeffrey J. Brown

The Singular Henry Singleton

The Singular Henry Singleton

New Issue of CVI - Punch Card Portfolio

The second issue of the Canadian Value Investing - Punch Card Portfolio will be issued tonight to subscribers.

Includes a new stock recommendation, updates on existing positions, a watchlist of attractive equities and some interesting reading for value investors.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Suncor With 20 Years of Growth Ahead or a No Growth Major?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/294148-suncor-with-decades-of-growth-ahead-trades-at-the-same-multiple-as-the-no-growth-oil-majors

Berkowitz/Fairholme Approved to Buy Up to 50% of St. Joe

Fairholme/Berkowitz Now Have Approval to Buy up to 50 Percent of St. Joe

Bass, Loeb, Cooperman Video

Delivering Alpha – Video of Discussion With Bass, Loeb, Falcone, Cooperman

Ackman/Zell Video on Real Estate

Delivering Alpha – Discussion of Real Estate with Ackman, Zell and Others

Alice Schroeder - On Buffett's New Portfolio Manager

Alice Schroeder – The Meaning Behind Berkshire Hathaway Hiring Ted Weschler

GMO - Optimistic About US Housing Market Longer Term

I wasn't expecting such an optimistic view on the USA, China not so nice looking......

GMO – Observations on the Real Estate Cycle in China and the United States (FXI)

Thursday, September 15, 2011

An Attractive Investment Opportunity

Now some self promotion. The BP Macondo mess created one of the more profitable baskets of investments I've made in a while. I covered them real time on my blog last year at the time of purchase and the time of sale



Ensco on July 1, 2010 – Share price $39.28 – Selling Share price - $56.10
Increase 42% in about 9 months

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=98829

And yes, I wrote that before the Einhorn disclosures….


Cobalt on July 28, 2010 – Share price $8.46 – Selling Share price - $15.66
Increase 85% in about 8 months
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=101391


Diamond Offshore on July 31, 2010 – Share price $59.49 – Selling Share price - $78.23
Increase 31% in about 8 months

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=101737


Stone Energy on Aug 15, 2010 – Share price $11.77 – Selling Share price $30.28
Increase 157% in about 8 months

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=104529

Here is the post where I exited:

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/124165/noble-energy-becomes-first-company-to-receive-approval-for-a-deepwater-well-since-the-bp-oil-spill--what-do-we-do-now-


These were not easy purchases to make, because at the time the television was telling us 24/7 that small producers were going to be put out of business.  But with some common sense and by following the details of the proposals in Congress I sucked it up and bought this basket of stocks.

Opportunities like these don't come along often and I think I've got another set that I will be covering in my newsletter in the coming weeks and months. Hopefully the market stays where it is so prices stay attractive for a while.

Next issue out this Sunday. Subscription link is above.

Bill Ackman 43 Minute Video on HK Trade

Bill Ackman (Pershing Square): 43-Minute Delivering Alpha Video

George Soros Pens Article on the Euro

George Soros: Does The Euro Have a Future? – New York Review of Books Article

BP Officially To Blame on the Macondo Blow Out

Cost cutting and rushing to blame:

http://www.kansascw.com/kscw/news/sns-rt-us-bp-spill-probetre78d0kv-20110913,0,5653364.story

Now some self promotion.  This mess created one of the more profitable baskets of investments I've made in a while.  I covered them real time on my blog at the time of purchase and the time of sale

Ensco on July 1, 2010 – Share price $39.28 – Selling Share price - $56.10


http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=98829

And yes, I wrote that before the Einhorn disclosures….

Cobalt on July 28, 2010 – Share price $8.46 – Selling Share price - $15.66

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=101391

Diamond Offshore on July 31, 2010 – Share price $59.49 – Selling Share price - $78.23

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=101737

Stone Energy on Aug 15, 2010 – Share price $11.77 – Selling Share price $30.28

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=104529

Here is the post where I exited:

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/124165/noble-energy-becomes-first-company-to-receive-approval-for-a-deepwater-well-since-the-bp-oil-spill--what-do-we-do-now-

These were not easy purchases to make, because at the time the television was telling us 24/7 that small producers were going to be put out of business.

Opportunities like these don't come along often and I think I've got another set that I will be covering in my newsletter in the coming weeks and months.  Hopefully the market stays where it is so prices stay attractive.

Next issue out this Sunday.  Subscription link is above.

Rogue Trader at UBS Loses $2 billion

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/09/15/678301/ubs-rogue-trader-grubel-memo/

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Where are all the junior oil deals ?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/where-are-all-the-junior-oil-deals/article2164480/

Eric Sprott - Sell Gold, Buy Gold Equities

I've been suggesting short gold, buy gold equities....

Eric Sprott – Gold Stocks, Ready, Set...

Small Berkshire Acquisition

http://www.portfolio.com/business-news/reuters/2011/09/10/berkshires-richline-to-buy-italian-jeweler#ixzz1XZMAhgds

Kyle Bass - CNBC Video - Greece Has to Default

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44518427

Bill Ackman's Big Mystery Bet

The HK dollar

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44504271

Julian Robertson / Sequoia Fund Like Google and Apple

http://seekingalpha.com/article/293685-julian-robertson-sees-apple-and-google-as-fabulous-investment-opportunities

Blackrock's Fink Prefers Equities to Debt

Treasuries paying nothing or world class companies at low p/e's with nice dividend yields....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/BlackRock-CEO-Fink-favors-rb-812701616.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Dell Could Repurchase 25% of its shares in 12 mths

http://seekingalpha.com/article/293627-dell-could-repurchase-25-of-its-shares-in-the-next-12-months-and-barely-dent-its-cash-hoard

Sequoia Investor Day Presentation

Sequoia Fund Investor Day Transcript – May 2011

Buffett And Wells Fargo: His Track Record Not As Good As You Might Think

I don't think anyone loves WEB more than me, but I was shocked to see how much he plunked into Wells Fargo at exactly the wrong time.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/293600-buffett-and-wells-fargo-his-track-record-not-as-good-as-you-might-think

Halliburton Executive Drinks Fracking Fluid At Conference

I hear all the guys on the rigs are doing it.....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/22/halliburton-executive-drinks-fracking-fluid_n_933621.html

Sunday, September 11, 2011

Article On Biglari other Restaurant Activists

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/rush-to-restaurant-real-estate-brings-53-increase-in-valuation-real-m-a.html?cmpid=yhoo

Australian Housing Bubble - Home Shortage Supporting Stupid Prices ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/housing-bears-say-shortage-myth-means-australia-set-for-crash.html

Fashionably Early - Prem Watsa Interview with CFA Institute

Fashionably Early - Prem Watsa Interview With CFA Institute

Bearish on commodities of all sorts

Peters & Co - Energy Conference Sep 13 to Sep 15

http://www.newswire.ca/en/webcast/pages/en/peters20110913/

Is it weird that I get excited to listen to companies present at these things ?  Don't judge me, I'm getting older, your interests change.

Why Pabrai Avoids Chinese Companies and Nat Gas

Pabrai 2010 AGM Notes – Why Pabrai Avoids Chinese Companies and Natural Gas

Anthony Scaramucci - Wants to Be the Peter Lynch of the Hedge Fund World

Anthony Scaramucci – Wants to Be the Peter Lynch of the Hedge Fund World

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Bellatrix updated presentation and operational update

http://www.bellatrixexploration.com/pdf/110901PresentationSept2011.pdf

CALGARY, Sep. 6, 2011, 2011 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX News Network) --


TSX: BXE

Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. ("Bellatrix" or the "Company") is pleased to provide the following operational update.

After the extremely wet spring breakup, commencing in August 2011, the Company has four rigs drilling Cardium horizontal wells in central Alberta and is on track to fulfill its drilling goals for the remainder of 2011. Bellatrix currently plans to drill 36 gross wells (25.84 net) in the second half 2011 drilling program. The Company expects to drill approximately 27 gross Cardium horizontal wells (21.8 net) and 9 gross Notikewin horizontal wells (4.04 net) in the West Central area of Alberta in the second half 2011 program.

The Company's drilling success and mapping revisions have resulted in increased inventory. The Company now has 400 net locations in the Cardium light gravity oil play and 174 locations in the Notikewin condensate rich gas resource play yielding over $2.1 billion in future development expenditures based on current costs of drilling.

Bellatrix continues to focus on the development of its core assets and conducts exploration programs utilizing its large inventory of geological prospects. As at June 30, 2011, Bellatrix has approximately 218,067 net undeveloped acres and including all opportunities has in excess of 900 exploitation drilling opportunities identified, representing over 10 years of drilling inventory based on annual cashflow. The Company continues to focus on adding Cardium prospective lands.

The Devonian aged Duvernay shale is emerging as one of the most promising resource plays in Canada. At the end of the second quarter of 2011, Bellatrix had acquired 49 gross (46 net) sections of Duvernay rights. After adjusting for recent expiries, the Company now controls 44 gross (43 net) sections of Duvernay rights in West Central Alberta. Bellatrix is currently planning to drill a horizontal Duvernay test well on the Company's acreage in the first quarter of 2012.

Management is proposing a 2012 capital expenditure program of approximately $180 million which is anticipated to be finalized in the fourth quarter of 2011. Based on the timing of proposed expenditures, downtime for anticipated plant turnarounds and normal production declines, execution of the 2012 plan is anticipated to provide 2012 average daily production of approximately 17,000 BOE per day. The 2012 capital expenditures are expected to be directed primarily towards horizontal drilling and completions activities in the Cardium and Notikewin resource plays.

Bellatrix recently entered into an additional price risk management contract consisting of a crude oil fixed price swap for 1,000 bbls/d for the period January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2012 at a price of CDN $90/bbl. As at September 6, 2011, Bellatrix has entered into commodity price risk management arrangements for 2012 as follows:

Half the S&P 500 Yields More Than the 10 Year Treasury

Half of the S&P 500 Yields More Than 10 Year Treasuries – Why Aren’t People Buying Stocks?

Tilson on Why His Fund Can Thrive Through Rough Patches

Tilson Provides Recipe For Aspiring Hedgies For Attracting Patient Long Term Capital To Your Fund

Midway Energy - Looks Cheap to me

Midway Energy – Another Attractive Oil-Weighted Unconventional Canadian Junior Primed for a Takeover

13 Stocks in Tilson Portfolio With 10% Plus Drops In August

10% in a month should be frightening, it is more like 10% in a day lately

http://seekingalpha.com/article/291811-13-stocks-in-tilson-s-portfolio-that-had-double-digit-declines-in-august

Thursday, September 1, 2011

T2 Partners (Tilson) Hedge Fund Down 13.2% In August

I appreciate the open commentary in his letter.  I expect this portfolio is a good one in which to look for bargains.

T2 Partners August Letter - A Horrible Month, A Horrible Year

Canadian Oil Sands Ltd.

5% Yield, I think 60% Upside to Fairly Simple Valuation

http://seekingalpha.com/article/291191-betting-on-higher-oil-prices-consider-canadian-oil-sands-for-5-yield-and-60-upside-potential

Centaur Capital's High Conviction Ideas

http://seekingalpha.com/article/291170-centaur-capital-is-long-tech-and-short-china-retail-treasuries-and-the-yen

Ashton is a solid, risk averse investor.  Very sensible approach to managing other peoples money.

Guru Focus September 1, 2011

2005 Whistleblower Letter on Bernie Madoff

2005 Letter to the SEC from Harry Markopolos Explaining that Bernie Madoff’s Hedge Fund Is a Fraud


Idiotic Forbes Piece on Buffett Age

Happy Birthday Mr. Buffett – According to This Forbes Piece You and Your Board Are Too Old


Get Your Investing Degree From Buffett

Buffett Provides an Investing Education in 500 Words