Wednesday, November 30, 2011

8 Canadian Energy Companies Down More Than 30% YOY Despite $100 Oil

Goldman Sachs Top Trades for 2012

And this on exceptionally low oil inventories for this time of the year:

As the downside risk from the European debt crisis has intensified, so has the oil market’s incentive to draw down inventories ahead of the threatened global economic recession. In particular, in its attempt to price in the potential that the European debt crisis may trigger a new global economic recession, the oil market continues to set crude oil prices too low to clear the tight physical markets, leading oil inventories to reach exceptionally low levels for the time of year. In the first three quarters of 2011 (latest available data), OECD total petroleum inventories drew by 225,000 b/d more than normal. This implies that despite Brent crude oil prices, which averaged $111.50/bbl over the same time period, current demand still exceeded the available supply. We estimate that Bent crude oil prices would have needed to average $130/bbl to restrain demand in line with supply. Further, in the absence of the IEA coordinated release of 35.5 million barrels of government inventories this summer, Brent crude oil prices would likely have needed to average $140/bbl to keep demand in line with supply.

Of course, the market had ample inventory cover from 2011Q1-2011Q3, and so the market could balance by drawing inventories rather than restraining demand. However, with inventories now exceptionally tight outside of the US, and US inventories drawing rapidly, we believe that this draw on oil inventories cannot be sustained and oil demand must be restrained either through the feared sharp decline in world economic growth, or higher crude oil prices.

Consequently, while the downside risk from the European debt crisis has increased, the upside risk to oil prices has also increased as the low level of inventories and currently tight supply-demand balance is leaving the oil market exceptionally vulnerable to supply disappointments or better-than-expected demand. Interestingly, while the oil market has spent much of 2011H2 drawing parallels to 2008H2, the more relevant parallel may prove to be between 2011H2 and 2007H2, when extremely tight physical markets set the stage for crude oil prices to rise by almost 50% in 2008H1 to a record high over $145/bbl even though the US economy had fallen into recession, much as we think the European economy is doing now

Transocean Issues Shares to Shore up Balance Sheet

Another Asian Buy of North American Energy Assets

OPEC countries increasing need for higher oil prices

Bove on the S&P Bank Downgrade

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Birinyi, Peak Everything and John Paulson Apologizing to Investors

Lazlo BirinyiCommodities Guru Dr. Stephen Leeb on Scarcity of Rare Earth Minerals*tag*&par=RSS

Muddy Waters Reiterating Strong Sell on FMCN

FMCN’s partial response to our 80-page November 21, 2011 report reinforces our Strong Sell rating.

FMCN’s response admitted that our estimate of fewer than 120,000 LCD screens showing full motion video advertisements is correct. Despite this admission, FMCN denied that it was fraudulently overstating the number of displays in its network because the 178,382 displays it discloses include 62,656 digital picture frames. FMCN’s response stated that it does not also count these digital picture frames in its poster segment. There is strong evidence that FMCN does in fact double count these digital frames. However, in response to our report and in contrast to previous 20-F filings, FMCN has expanded the definition of its LCD commercial display network beyond full motion video, which makes a clear and final resolution of this point unlikely. Therefore, FMCN at best prompted investors to think it had more motion displays than it does, and at worst fraudulently overstated the size of its LCD commercial display network. Both possibilities raise concerns about the health of this business line.

FMCN has fraudulently overstated the size of at least one other business line – through 2008, FMCN claimed its movie theater network was 17.6x the size of the potential market.

FMCN’s response did nothing to dispel our concerns about its acquisitions – namely that it deliberately overpays for, and unduly impairs in order to improperly give away, a substantial portion of its acquisitions. It is still clear that FMCN did not actually purchase six purported mobile handset advertising businesses, even as VIEs.

FMCN’s response that insiders’ self-dealing was to show “confidence” in the businesses is almost ridiculous enough to not merit a mention in this report. FMCN’s response cites a dubious valuation report as support for self-dealing in Allyes, yet FMCN does not provide answers as to why two outside individuals were allowed to earn $20 million on the transactions.

We believe that FMCN’s impending “independent” verification of the number of LCD screens in its network is likely to be compromised. There is precedent for this statement – FMCN’s audit committee previously undertook a flawed investigation into possible improprieties. As we discussed in our initial report, FMCN’s board’s is comprised of individuals who are largely entangled with management and whose compensation misaligns their interests from those of shareholders.

We maintain our Strong Sell rating on FMCN mainly because our concerns regarding the viability of FMCN’s core LCD commercial location network remain. This issue, combined with FMCN’s additional misrepresentations about the size of the network, FMCN’s opaque business model (on both the revenue and cost sides), and insiders’ penchant for self-dealing, render FMCN shares un-investable.

Tilson On Interoil, Icahn on Commercial Metals, Rogers on Everything

Whitney Tilson Thinks InterOil Intrinsic Value = Zero

Carl Icahn’s November 28, 2011 Letters to Takeover Target Commercial Metals Company

Jim Rogers Would Invest 100% of His Portfolio in One Country

Corzine Looking Like Key To MF Global's Failure

Nexen Enters BC Shale Gas JV With Inpex Corp of Japan

Jim Rogers 21 Minute China Money Podcast

Jim Rogers - 21 Minute China Money Podcast

Monday, November 28, 2011

Iran Oil Targeted By Obama Sanctions

Ackman vs Icahn - This Time it Is Personal

Bill Ackman and Control of CP Rail

Interview with Eric Sprott

Transcription of Finance News Network with Sprott Asset Management Chairman and CEO, Eric Sprott.

Lelde Smits: Hello, I’m Lelde Smits for the Finance News Network. Joining me today at The Gold Symposium in Sydney, all the way from Canada is Chairman and CEO of Sprott Asset Management, Mr Eric Sprott. Eric, welcome to FNN.

Eric Sprott: Lelde, great to be here.

Lelde Smits: Now you’ve just given a presentation on investing in a financial crisis and talked about the importance of gold and silver. So just to recap, why should investors be looking at gold and silver?

Eric Sprott: Well as I mentioned in the speech, my initial interest in this gold and silver is because I thought there would be a physical shortage of gold, because central banks have been selling gold, mining companies have been hedging gold, investment demand was weak. So back in 2000 you could kind of sense that that was about to change. That the miners would stop hedging at those low prices; mines were going to go out of production because the price was too low, and that likely there would be a change in investor sentiment in gold. And that the physicalness of gold would make it appealing.As I mentioned in the speech, I was kind of blessed that we have central banks and governments who then decided they should act irresponsibly, because the economy was under pressure. So they come up with these ridiculous policies of printing money and TARPs (Troubled Asset Relief Program) and TALFs (Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility) and budget programmes and so on. All of which was to sort of demise their own currencies which again gave I think, gold a much bigger push than even I might of imagined back in 2000. So those are the fundamental backdrops to our interest.

Lelde Smits: So with this sort of interest, how high do you think the price of precious metals will go?

Eric Sprott: Well that’s everyone’s favourite question and it’s a very difficult question to answer, because you don’t know how irresponsible governments are likely to be. So for example we don’t have QE3 yet in the US, but if we got a QE3 (Quantitative Easing) I think it would be a huge stimulus to the price of gold. Some people suspect we’ll get QE3 and QE4 and QE5, and I think probably the most sound measure where gold would go, is some relationship to the amount of money that exists. And today the amount of money that exists per ounce of gold is around $10,000. So it’s not hard for me to imagine it would go to those levels. But if we keep printing at the rate we are printing and of course we can go much higher than that. So suffice it to say that anyone who buys it here will not be disappointed with the performance. And even if it only goes up, you know its very simple 21% a year that it’s done for the last ten years, I think everyone would be very happy, including me.

Lelde Smits: So to gold, where do you see its price in six months’ time?

Eric Sprott: Well I suspect it’ll be north of $2,000. You know I think probably with this little rally we’re in now, we’ll probably break through the old highs and I won’t be surprised to see it easily get to $2,000.

Lelde Smits: And how about five years from now?

Eric Sprott: Hmmm, well five is tough because I don’t know how many QEs we’re going to have but I’m sure it will be substantially higher. You know if somebody said well do you think it can get to $5,000? Of course it can get to $5,000. Will it get to $5,000? I don’t know - it doesn’t have to get to $5,000 for somebody to like it at $1,800. Well particularly when you put it up against all other forms of investment - government bonds, stocks and so on which have not been performing well. So on a relative basis I think it’s going to be your best investment opportunity.

Link to video and full transcript:

Guy Speir Q2 Shareholder Letter

A little dated, but I enjoyed the read:

Details of Secret Fed Loans to Banks During Crisis Emerge

KKR and Unconventional Oil and Gas

Tilson/Barron's On Netflix

Bellatrix Provides 2012 Production and Capex Guidance

Dick Bove On Why He Has Been So Wrong in 2011 on Bank Stocks

Saturday, November 26, 2011

Bakken Oil is boom for Railroads

Alternative Energy's Alternate Reality

Interviews With Klarman, Gallagher and Robert Shiller

Tweedy Browne Q3 Commentary


Friday, November 25, 2011

Insider Buying at Petrobakken Continues

Being a number cruncher myself, I especially appreciate the CFO buying over $90k worth of shares (not insignificant for a guy with a salary of $254k)

Nov 24/11 Nov 22/11 Scott, Peter D. Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 9,800 $9.67

Nov 21/11 Nov 17/11 Lothian, E. Craig Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 20,000 $9.60

Nov 15/11 Nov 14/11 Lothian, E. Craig Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 10,000 $9.96

Saudi Internal Oil Consumption To Continue Growing

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, will need 53 percent more fuel to fire its power and desalination plants by 2017 as demand jumps, the head of Water & Electricity Co. said. The kingdom will use 2.3 million barrels a day of oil equivalent by 2017 for power, compared with 1.5 million barrels last year, Omar al-Ghamdi, chief executive officer of the state- run utility, said in a presentation in Riyadh this week. Power production will increase to 74,529 megawatts, from 55,265 megawatts while daily desalinated water consumption will rise 32 percent to 7.4 million cubic meters, according to Ghamdi. Saudi Arabia is using more of its 12.5 million barrel-a-day oil capacity at home as it builds new houses and industries that require electricity. The amount of crude burned for power generation has doubled since 2008 and may reach 600,000 barrels a day this year, according to theInternational Energy Agency. The country may use 8 million barrels of oil equivalent a day by 2035, Khalil al-Shafie, interim president of King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center said at a conference in the capital

More on Iranian Explosions

European Crisis to Never End ?

"As a result the crisis is still likely to get worse before it can get better, if indeed it ever does."

Canadian Home Price Likely Considerably Overvalued

I believe my next rental property will involve something south of the border.

France pushes for Iranian oil embargo

Fundamentals Won't Allow Oil Price to Fall

An Inside Look at Fracking

Israel Behind Recent Blasts in Iran

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Barclay's Thinks IEA Understating Chinese Oil Demand

Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- China’s oil consumption by 2015 will be “significantly” higher than International Energy Agency forecasts, surging 35 percent from this year, as economic expansion spurs fuel demand, Barclays Capital said.

The world’s biggest energy user may need 13.6 million barrels a day of fuel, versus an IEA estimate of 10.5 million, based on growth in China’s energy demand versus income levels in the past decade, Miswin Mahesh, London-based analyst at the bank, wrote in a report today.

“We believe key agency forecasts, such as those of the IEA, are too conservative,” said Mahesh. “To get down to consensus forecasts would require radically higher price elasticities, higher prices and lower income elasticities than we observe for the country.”

China’s per capita energy demand rose 50 percent in the past decade as income climbed 86 percent, and a “simple extrapolation” to the next five years would show a 4.2 million barrel-a-day increase in oil consumption compared with 2010, Barclays said.

“We expect vehicle and oil demand growth to be more sensitive to income growth than changes in oil prices,” the report said.

The demand for new vehicles and goods will support a 40 percent increase in diesel consumption to 4.8 million barrels a day by 2015 from 2011, according to the report.

The nation will also buy crude over the next five years for its strategic petroleum reserves when facilities are ready for filling, Barclays said.

“China will continue to be a very important aspect of the market, especially during periods of price correction, helping to provide a price floor,” they said.

Lost generation of Retail Investors?

Boone Pickens and Michael Burry

Energy Guru Boone Pickens On Why His Natural Gas Plan Is Not Making Progress

Profile of Michael Burry - 25 Minute Video

Monday, November 21, 2011

Muddy Waters Strikes Again

Muddy Waters Strikes Again – Issues Strong Sell on Focus Media Holding Ltd (FMCN)

Should We Be Buying Jefferies ?

Should Investors Follow Leucadia Into the Plunging Stock of Jefferies (JEF)?

Fairfax buying Prime Restaurants

AIG's Greenberg Sues Government for $25 Billion

Buffett Bloomberg Interview

Buffett on CNBC Japan - Some European Stocks Attractive

Buffett Has $10 Billion Ready Should Opportunity Knock

Despite a Busy Year of Investing, Buffett Could Still Do a $10 Billion Deal

Wilbur Ross Teams With Virgin Money to Buy Northern Rock

Vulture Investing Guru Wilbur Ross Jumps Further Into the Banking Sector

Friday, November 18, 2011

Petrobakken - Why Are Analyst Targets Half of Where They Were a Year Ago?

Production - 20% higher

Oil - Now 15% higher

Exit Guidance - Beat the very high end

New Acreage - 120,000 acres revealed during 2011

And all this results in a valuation being cut in half ????

Buffett, Tom Brown of Second Curve and a GMO Whitepaper

Warren Buffett Appearance on CNBC – Links to Seven-Part Transcript

GMO - Re-Thinking Risk What the Beta Puzzle Tells Us about Investing

Guru Bank Investor Tom Brown - US Banks Significantly Undervalued

Ex-Shell CEO Sees $5 Gasoline By the End of 2012

Analyst Out With a Sell Rating on Chesapeake

Energy Analyst Trimble On CHK, ATPG, SD, EXXI

Howard Marks Latest Commentary - It Is All Very Taxing

Howard Marks Latest Commentary: It IS All Very Taxing

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Keyston Rerouting Calls Obama's Bluff

Biggest Oil Find in Decades Becomes $39 Billion Warning

Jim Rogers - The US in Worse Shape than Europe

Jim Rogers – The United States Is in Worse Shape Than Europe

Bill Miller Stepping Down

Bill Miller Stepping Down From His Main Fund After Five Years of Struggles

Aubrey McClendon on CNBC

Former Berkshire Investor Lou Simpson Is Buying Chesapeake Energy – Chesapeake CEO Explains Why You Should Too

Dick Bove Sees Mass Reduction in Financial Jobs

Kyle Bass Interviews With BBC on European Debts

Kyle Bass Interview With BBC On European Debt Mess – Part 1

Kyle Bass Interview with BBC on European Debt Mess – Part 2

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

CHK And Natural Gas Prices

John Mauldin Investment Outlook

John Mauldin Outlook on Stocks and Investment Strategy

Jim Grant - On The European Debt Crisis

Video – Jim Grant on the European Debt Crisis

Interview with Bakken Billionaire Harold Hamm

Buffett Friend and Oil Guru – Billionaire Harold Hamm

David Rosenberg on Consuelo Mack

David Rosenberg on Consuelo Mack

Mario Gabelli - Unleash the American Energy Industry

Mario Gabelli – Unleash The American Energy Industry

What Bill Nygren Has Been Buying

Where Is Bill Nygren Finding Value in the Stock Market Today?

Monday, November 14, 2011

Anadarko Reveals Big Shale Oil Play

The Fight of Richard Rainwater's Life

The Fight of Richard Rainwater’s Life

Cameco Now Tops Rio Tinto Bid For Hathor Exploration

I guess I shouldn't have sold on the first bid !  Another bid coming?  The market apparently thinks so...

Cameco Bid for Hathor Exploration Now a 73% Premium to Price When Suggested by GuruFocus

Buffett Unveils a $10 billion stake in a technology company

Buffett Unveils a $10 Billion Stake in a Technology Company!

Oil Shale Boom Boosts US Job Market

2011 IEA World Energy Outlook Contains Scary Message

Buffett - How to fix Housing

Buffett - Penalties Too Light for Officers

Buffett On Too Big to Fail

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Petrobakken Q3 Update - Will Exceed High End Exit Production Guidance

Outstanding.  Already at 47,500 per day and expect to exit 2011 at over 49,000 per day.

Three wells have been drilled in the new plays and they aren't saying much.  That is a good sign.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

Tehran Shadow Over the Oil Market

In the first hours of the attack prices would surge, on average, by $23 (U.S.) a barrel, according to the survey. Some market participants anticipate a spike of nearly $45 a barrel.

The consultancy also asked market participants about their price view a month after the attack, depending on the magnitude of the supply disruption and the response of the International Energy Agency.

If the supply outage is short-lived, the survey points to prices up by $11 a barrel. But a prolonged disruption – three weeks’ closure of the strait, with 15.5 million barrels a day lost – with no IEA action, would see prices up, on average, by $61 a barrel. The most extreme view puts prices nearly $175 a barrel higher if the supply disruption is prolonged. But if the IEA uses the strategic stocks, offsetting half of the supply loss, prices would be, on average, $39 a barrel higher.

Could shale gas reignite the US economy

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Bank of America to Exchange Preferred Stock for Common

Petrobakken Spuds Duvernay Well

Bakken, Cardium, Nordegg, Swan Hills, Montney, Horn River and yep the Duvernay.

00/03-21-063-18W5/0 PBN HZ KAYBOB 3-21-63-18          0437301  A0F8   Patterson-UTI Drilling Co. Canada           1 02-Nov-2011 07:45:00 AM St. Albert     A5EL  Petrobakken Energy Ltd.     

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Petrobakken transaction speculation

From a message board so reader beware.  The oil weighted transaction details are sensible and useful.

Td has been releasing it's oil/gas company updates for the last 3 weeks which state that PBN is restricted. I would think an announcement on the debt issue is coming soon. Last time this occurred with CPG the company bought all those assets south in the US. I don't care to speculate on the outcome however I think it's quite near. Judging by all the calls and puts on the future trading price I assume you could expect a 30% + move in the price. ********In Exhibit 1 we outline historical M&A transactions of companies and/orproducing assets over $500 million since the beginning of 2007. In this data set,we count 32 separate transactions totalling $47 billion, averaging ~19,000 BOE/d.Since mid-2009, there have been $25 billion in transactions. Since 2007, from thisdata, gas-weighted deals were done at an average of ~$56,000/BOEPD (excludingthe Shell-Duvernay transaction). Crude oil weighted transactions were done at anaverage of $97,000/BOEPD.TD says that we could expect $97,000 BOEPD for oil...on a sale. PBN trades at year end production...$37-$32,000 BOEPD (depending on 43,000 or 49,000 exit rate). IF they don't take this company private soon, they will be the laughing stock of Calgary for a very long time. 4th consecutive profitable quarter coming soon.