Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Microsoft - Hedge fund favorite

Seems like a very simple fat pitch.  Very tough to lose money if you are willing to wait for a couple of years.

All Canadian Value Investor Guru Focus Articles

Apologies for not having the hyperlink previously.  Here are all articles and will try and update past posts.

Not having the link was driving my Aunt Alice out of her mind

Oil and Gas 360 Interviews Al Reese at Enercom

Fairly lengthy interview with the CFO. No time spent explaining what oil is used for or taking shots at the government. I wish CEO Paul could also focus on what the message is to deliver.

Is anyone bullish on natural gas ?

Maybe I should be, can't find anyone else who is.

Monday, August 30, 2010

Everyone is Bearish, time to start investing more seriously

I've been sitting on a pile of cash. Everyone is uncertain about where the economy is going. Time to start really looking for bargains

Francis Chou provides interesting way to get long banks

Buying the warrants that the banks issued to the US Treasury. Leverage way to invest on the idea that the world eventually returns to normal.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Long term fat pitch in the fertilizer space ?

I've been buying for a month or so. The Potash news has moved the price up on me.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Francis Chou Semi-Annual Report

Interesting comments as always, and surprising bullish on financials.

ATP at Enercom

More color on the upcoming events (MC941#3 well and Titan deal) from people who were at the Enercom conference. Also Bloomberg radio with CFO Reese.

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Penn West Energy - Low Risk Investment with Significant Growth Ahead

Penn West appears to finally have found a way to exploit it's massive asset base through JVs and focusing cash flow on light oil.

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Big Month Ahead for ATP

Two huge events for the company should transpire before the end of September. Then no additional infrastructure spending between them and 5 more 5,000 plus BOE per day wells.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Contango - Great Management, Wrong Commodity

Oh, if only they were an oil producer.

Monday, August 23, 2010

ATP Titan Might be Among Earliest to Resume Drilling

From the WSJ:

The Obama administration's chief offshore drilling regulator said Monday the government could partially lift a moratorium on new deep-water oil exploration before Nov. 30 if oil companies can persuade the government their operations are safe.

Michael Bromwich, the director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Enforcement and Regulation, wrote in a letter to the special presidential commission investigating the BP PLC oil spill that the agency may decide that "certain categories of rigs present fewer risks than others are and sufficiently safe to allow the moratorium to be lifted with respect to those categories of rigs."

The commission holds a public meeting Wednesday. Members of the commission have questioned the administration's moratorium, which is also under attack in federal court.

The drilling ban has been controversial in the Gulf Coast, where oil companies and local officials say it is crippling the region's economy.

The Obama administration says the ban is necessary while the government develops new safeguards to lessen the chances of another giant oil spill like the one that occurred in the Gulf of Mexico after an April 20 well explosion that destroyed a floating oil rig and killed 11 workers

Tilson Laughs At Idea He Has Gone Long Interoil (IOC)

Whitney not afraid to talk up his short position on IOC

Who do you believe ? Watsa and deflation or Berkowitz and a normal recovery ?

Did Sears Holdings Really Drop from $120 in April to $60 today ?

What did Eddie do to cut the value of the company in half in 3 months ?

Friday, August 20, 2010

Canadian Oil Sands Trust - 50% upside to Verifiable Fair Value

Attractive entry point for very long lived oil reserves.

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Insider buying at Sandridge

I think this will be rewarding from current prices as oil production ramps up. The are drilling 80% oil wells over the next 18months.

Canaccord Analyst Calls PBG Stock Price "Absurd"

Petrobank Energy and Resources Ltd. | Phil Skolnick, 1.212.849.3933

PBG : TSX : C$38.75 | C$4,107.2M | Buy , Target C$64.00 ↓

• Positive items come out of Q2 heavy oil update; reiterate our BUY rating,

lowering price target to $64.00

Positive indicator coming out of Conklin: We believe the key to PBG’s Q2/10 update is that the P3B well at the company’s Conklin oil sands THAI pilot project saw rates as high as 480 BOPD while testing the well at higher bottom-hole pressures in April. This is positive because the maximum rate experienced during the test is close to the expected capacity of 500 BOPD per well in a bitumen project. But it probably isn't definitive yet, in our view.

Nevertheless, it is positive for May River (which still waits for government approval).

Following pump reconfiguration/replacement in Q2/10 and additional maintenance in late Q2/early Q3, Kerrobert rates are back to May levels and rising: The Kerrobert project is currently averaging 250 BOPD combined and rising. At the June CAPP conference, PBG stated that the two well pairs saw oil rates in the range of 100 to 200 BOPD. But these rates were before downtime in late Q2 and early Q3, which require a re-ramp-up phase.

The project is experiencing a 7 to 8 degree improvement in the API of the oil, per PBG,which is very positive.

New CFO is another step to ultimately making PBG, PBN, and PMG stand-alone entities and thus removing PBG’s conglomerate overhang, in our view. PBG announced the appointment of Peter Cheung, CA as vice president , finance and chief financial officer effective August 14, 2010, replacing Corey Ruttan, who was recently promoted to president and chief executive officer of PMG. .

Current PBG, PBN, and PMG share prices imply there is no heavy oil/oil sands value in PBG’s stock implying that even if THAI doesn’t work, PBG’s oil sands resource base is worthless, which we believe is absurd. We reiterate our BUY rating.

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

BHP Billiton Makes Unsolicited Offer for PotashCorp

The supply and demand picture for potash makes higher prices seem almost certain in the upcoming decade.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Pay Attention to What the Chinese Are Doing

They aren't locking up oil reserves all over the globe because their oil consumption is going to slow down.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Robert Rodriguez - A 2007 Speech We Should Have Listened To

And what he is still warning us of today.

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Klarman buys Energy XXI

Note for self. Need to look further at this.

Friday, August 13, 2010

10 to look at

Bankers Petroleum BNK-T
Corridor Resources CDH-T
Delphi Energy DEE-T
Sterling Resources SLG-X
NuVista Energy Ltd NVA-T
Questerre Energy QEC-T
Rock Energy Inc. RE-T
WestFire Energy WFE-T
Advantage Oil & Gas AAV-T
Rodinia Oil Corp. * ROZ-X

Markel's Tom Gayner Warns of Bond Bubble

Bond bubble in the headlines everywhere. Question would be, when might it end ?

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Jim Grant is another Smart Investor Saying Buy Blue Chips

AT one point does a person pay attention ?

Sandridge Energy - A stock price with no bottom ?

At some point this has to be a good buy. I wonder how much more selling pressure from Arena shareholders who realize they now own Sandridge ?

Petrobakken - 4.5% yield, stock buyback, growing 10% per year

A lot to like about this one. One million acres of undeveloped land in Canada with growth ahead of it for years.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

ATP - Q2 Earnings Recap

I think a one time charge is much less important than the clarity on the liability cap / certificate of financial responsibility issue. But you have to hand it to ATP for remarkably consistent production misses.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Natural Gas Prices - Changed by Technology

Have Cheseapeake and the other shale gas players altered the future of natural gas prices ?

Icahn Puts 18% of Hedge Fund into Energy Patch

Carl Icahn moved aggressively into energy stocks during Q2.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Yukon Nevada Gold

Another for more research.

Senate Bill Likely to Be Friendly to Independent Producers

I think you could buy a basket of offshore GOM producers right now and likely do very well over the next couple of years. More detail on government legislation that shows independents will likely come through this mess ok.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Biglari takes 6% position in Sonic Corp

More burgers for Sardar. I'll try and have a look at it to see if I can figure out what he is seeing.

Maybe better to piggyback off him instead of pay him his management fee through SNS

Monday, August 2, 2010

Government Fog Clears - Canadian Value Investor Recommends ATPG Purchase

I have been holding ATP through the government debates over gulf drilling legislation. With the clarity provided by the House on Friday and the Senate bill seemingly dead I believe now is an excellent time to buy ATP Oil and Gas for what could be a quick rebound in shares that have dropped from $24 to $11.

Here are details: